May 27, 2009

Holy "cum hoc ergo propter hoc," Batman!

Allow me to diverge into a moment of logic, Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. Here's what Mr. & Mrs. Wikipedia have to say:
The cum hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy can be expressed as follows:
  • A occurs in correlation with B.
  • Therefore, A causes B.
In this type of logical fallacy, one makes a premature conclusion about causality after observing only a correlation between two or more factors. Generally, if one factor (A) is observed to only be correlated with another factor (B), it is sometimes taken for granted that A is causing B even when no evidence supports this. This is a logical fallacy because there are at least four other possibilities:
  1. B may be the cause of A
  2. some unknown third factor C is actually the cause of both A and B
  3. the "relationship" is coincidence or so complex or indirect that it is more effectively called coincidence (i.e. two events occurring at the same time that have no direct relationship to each other besides the fact that they are occurring at the same time).
  4. B may be the cause of A at the same time as A is the cause of B (contradicting that the only relationship between A and B is that A causes B). This describes a self-reinforcing system.
In other words, there can be no conclusion made regarding the existence or the direction of a cause and effect relationship only from the fact that A and B are correlated. Determining whether there is an actual cause and effect relationship requires further investigation, even when the relationship between A and B is statistically significant, a large effect size is observed, or a large part of the variance is explained.
Right.

So, in putting on my Dr. Google hat today, I discovered that Hashimoto's thyroiditis (A) can not only cause POF (B):
"One other cause of infertility in patients with thyroid disease is the uncommon condition of primary ovary failure"

...but POF (B) can cause Hashi's (A):
"Infertility is the result of this condition [POF], and is the most discussed problem resulting from it, but there are additional health implications of the problem... There is also an increased risk of heart disease, hypothyroidism in the form of Hashimoto's thyroiditis..."

*facepalm*

So, my high ATA count and negative Fragile X results are good, but that doesn't mean I can have my own genetic children yet. B/c, and I suddenly realized today, I could have a totally busted ovary regardless. We could be past the point of no return in terms of my own eggs. My guess is that my doc is going to recommend (hooray!) more blood tests on Friday.

1 comment:

erica057 said...

Does either necessarily *cause* the other, or is there a strong correlation between the two? Since Hashi's is an autoimmune disease, if your POF is also autoimmune then perhaps they just coincide due to a...confused?...immune system?